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Obama has a lead in South Florida, poll shows

A new Zogby International poll shows Barack Obama sitting on a 16-point lead over John McCain in South Florida.

BY BETH REINHARD
[email protected]

http://www.miamiherald.com/political-currents/story/580781.html

Barack Obama is ahead 46-30 percent over John McCain in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in the survey of 807 people conducted by Zogby International.

In a sign that Democrat Barack Obama will be competitive in the nation’s largest swing state, he is beating Republican John McCain comfortably in South Florida and has a slight edge among Hispanics, according to a new Miami Herald poll.

Obama is ahead 46-30 percent over McCain in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in the survey of 807 people conducted by Zogby International. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

‘’Obama’s 16-point lead in South Florida could springboard him to make it a competitive race statewide,'’ said pollster John Zogby. “I really think Florida is in play.'’

About 24 percent of South Floridians favor another candidate or haven’t made up their minds — a large group that could tip the race in the coming months.

Obama was perceived as being behind in Florida because he did not campaign in the state for nine months and lost the Democratic primary to Hillary Clinton. But two statewide polls released last week showed him with a narrow edge over McCain. The Zogby poll was conducted June 18-20, just as Obama’s first television ads in South Florida went on the air.

South Florida traditionally votes Democratic, but Obama’s lead in Miami-Dade is wider than the narrow margin of victory posted by 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry.

HISPANIC VOTE

Among Hispanics in the three counties, Obama leads McCain 40 to 35 percent. Until the tide started to turn against the Republican Party in 2006, Hispanics in Florida have long favored the GOP.

‘’That shows the depth of anger that Hispanics are feeling toward the Republican Party,'’ Zogby said. “If Democrats walk away with 65 percent of the Hispanic vote in Florida, that will be almost insurmountable for the Republican party.'’

Obama’s lead in the poll suggests he is winning over supporters of Hillary Clinton, who won handily in South Florida and in the Hispanic community in the Jan. 29 presidential primary. McCain won the Hispanic vote in the Republican primary.

‘’When Hispanic voters have an opportunity to focus on McCain’s record on issues like education, economic development, free trade and immigration, the candidate who best represents the Hispanic community is McCain,'’ said Ana Carbonell, a Miami member of the McCain campaign’s steering committee. “The campaign plans an aggressive effort to reach out to Hispanic voters, especially in Florida.'’

ELIAN ISSUE

But Democrats point to signs that the Hispanic community’s political stripes are changing. A protest Saturday outside Obama’s speech in Miami drew only about three dozen people, mostly older Cuban-Americans. The group attacked Obama for surrounding himself with two high-level advisors who helped send Cuban rafter Elián González back to his father in Cuba.

When the custody battle raged eight years ago, Cuban-Americans rose up in droves. ‘’We understand the Elián González issue is something that passed, and that it was not Obama’s fault,'’ said Ramón Saúl Sánchez of the Miami-based Democracy Movement, who tussled with the federal agents who seized Elián from his relatives’ home in Little Havana. “People are giving more weight to other issues, like lifting the travel ban.'’

Carbonell said younger Cuban-Americans may not have attended the protest but were buzzing about Obama’s advisors on Spanish-language blogs. Of the Cuban-Americans in the Herald poll, a majority support McCain.

Obama has called for lifting the Bush administration’s restrictions on Cuban-Americans who want to visit family on the island. McCain has criticized Obama for wanting to ease sanctions and for his willingness to meet with the Cuban government in the hope of sparking democratic reform.

‘’A lot of Cuban Americans are very disappointed with President Bush,'’ Sanchez said. “If McCain says he’s going to follow the same policies as Bush, that says a lot.'’

INDEPENDENT EDGE

The survey also showed Obama leading among independents voters by 33-20 percent, with the rest favoring other candidates or undecided. Both Obama and McCain received strong support from independent voters in the primaries.

Obama’s three-day swing through Florida last month helped him take in nearly $1.6 million in May — more than twice what he raised statewide in April, according to reports filed last week with the Federal Election Commission. McCain collected $1.4 million in May, compared to nearly $1.1 million in April.

Miami Herald staff writer Rob Barry contributed to this report.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 24th, 2008 at 4:21 pm and is filed under Democratic Politics, Republican. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.