Growing Number of GOP Seats In Doubt
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/19/AR2006051901921.html?nav=rss_email/components
>
> Growing Number of GOP Seats In Doubt
>
>
> Vulnerability Seen In Unusual Places
>
> By Michael D. Shear and Dan Balz
>
> Washington Post Staff Writers
> Saturday, May 20, 2006; Page A01
>
> VIRGINIA BEACH, May 19 — When some of the country’s top political
> handicappers drew up their charts of vulnerable House incumbents at
> the beginning of this year, Rep. Thelma D. Drake (R-Va.) was not among
> them. Now she is.
>
> President Bush carried her district with 58 percent of the vote in
> 2004, but strategists say his travails are part of the reason the
> freshman lawmaker now has a fight on her hands. He swooped into town
> briefly Friday for a closed-door fundraiser for Drake but made no
> public appearances.
>
> Drake, who won with ease two years ago, is not alone. With approval
> ratings for Bush and congressional Republicans at a low ebb, GOP
> strategists see signs of weakness where they least expected it —
> including a conservative, military-dominated suburb such as Virginia
> Beach — and fear that their problems could grow worse unless the
> national mood brightens.
>
> Some veterans of the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress see worrisome
> parallels between then and now, in the way once-safe districts are
> turning into potential problems. Incumbents’ poll numbers have
> softened. Margins against their Democratic opponents have narrowed.
> Republican voters appear disenchanted. The Bush effect now amounts to
> a drag of five percentage points or more in many districts.
>
> The changes don’t guarantee a Democratic takeover by any means, but
> they are creating an increasingly asymmetrical battlefield for the
> fall elections: The number of vulnerable Democratic districts has
> remained relatively constant while the number of potentially
> competitive Republican districts continues to climb.
>
> Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of a political newsletter, now
> has 42 Republican districts, including Drake’s, on his list of
> competitive races. Last September, he had 26 competitive GOP
> districts, and Drake’s wasn’t on the list. “That’s a pretty
> significant increase,” he said. “The national atmospherics are making
> long shots suddenly less long.”
>
> At the Cook Political Report, Amy Walter has revised an analysis of
> the battle for control of the House, taking into account the sour mood
> toward Republicans nationally as a potentially significant factor in
> races that might otherwise turn on local issues, candidate performance
> or the size of campaign war chests.
>
> “In a nationalized election, the typical laws of gravity get thrown
> out the window,” Walter said. “Under-funded candidates beat
> better-funded candidates, and entrenched incumbents lose to first-time
> challengers.”
>
> Republicans said these trends in recent polling data are an early
> alert, not a cause for panic. Their strategists argue that their
> incumbents will not be caught by surprise, as many Democrats were in
> 1994, when they were swept from power in the House after 40 years.
>
> House Republican campaign officials are taking steps to protect their
> vulnerable candidates with money, opposition research, negative
> television ads and campaign messages designed to fly below the worst
> of the national turbulence. But they know there is only so much they
> can do if Bush’s approval rating stays below 40 percent and voters
> continue to say they want a change in direction.
>
> Drake, a first-term representative, isn’t yet among the most
> endangered GOP incumbents. But she is one of many — and not just
> inexperienced lawmakers — who could be at risk if there is an
> anti-Republican wave in the fall. Among House incumbents added to some
> GOP watch lists in recent months are veteran Reps. Nancy L. Johnson
> (Conn.), Deborah Pryce (Ohio), Charles Bass (N.H.), J.D. Hayworth
> (Ariz.) and Richard W. Pombo (Calif.).
>
> The National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, Thomas M.
> Reynolds (R-N.Y.), acknowledged Tuesday that the national mood has
> accelerated campaign planning by many incumbents. While vowing that
> Republicans will maintain their House majority in the fall, regardless
> of the national climate, Reynolds said, “Members [are] paying much
> more attention and putting together campaigns earlier.”
>
> Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, home to the U.S. Navy’s
> Atlantic Fleet, generally is solid Republican territory. Bush won the
> district with 58 percent of the vote in 2004, and Drake was elected
> with 55 percent. But Democratic Gov. Timothy M. Kaine won the district
> in his victory last November, and the fact that Drake, a 56-year-old
> former real estate agent and state legislator, is in her first term
> adds to the list of GOP worries.
>
> Around Virginia Beach, Republicans believe the race is Drake’s to lose
> but say she nonetheless faces a long six months. “I think Thelma is
> going to have to campaign hard, and she will,” said state Del. Leo C.
> Wardrup Jr., who helped recruit Drake into Congress.
>
> Her opponent, Democrat Phil Kellam, Virginia Beach commissioner of
> revenue, believes the most effective line of attack is to paint Drake
> as a loyal vote for the president at a time when Bush’s popularity has
> declined even in red states he carried in 2004. “She is grafted to
> this president,” Kellam said.
>
> Drake did not attend Friday’s fundraiser luncheon with the president,
> but her aides said the reason had nothing to with Bush’s political
> standing. They said she was in Washington for a vote on legislation
> affecting military families.
>
> White House officials acknowledge that the president’s time is too
> valuable to waste on safe incumbents. In some cases, the boost from a
> presidential fundraiser can turn a potentially competitive race into a
> relatively safe seat, but that was not the expectation Friday. “She’s
> got a real competitive race,” a Bush adviser said of Drake, speaking
> on the condition of anonymity in order to give a candid assessment.
>
> After helping Drake pick up about $475,000, Bush flew to Kentucky to
> raise money for another embattled Republican, Rep. Geoff Davis, who is
> being challenged by former Democratic representative Ken Lucas.
>
> Democrats do not yet consider Drake among their best targets, but they
> hope to make her one. The national party began running radio ads here
> this week, attacking Drake for backing Bush’s plan to revamp Social
> Security. The liberal group MoveOn.org says it has spent more than
> $100,000 running television ads attacking her ethics.
>
> Drake said the Democrats’ strategy of trying to use Bush against her
> won’t work. “I would much rather think like President George Bush than
> to think like Senator Ted Kennedy, [Democratic Party Chairman] Howard
> Dean or [House Minority Leader] Nancy Pelosi,” she said in an
> interview from her Capitol Hill office.
>
> Although Drake quickly earned a seat on the House Armed Services
> Committee, a coveted spot for a district with some of the world’s
> largest military bases, Kellam hopes to turn the district’s large
> military presence to his advantage.
>
> In an interview, he said he does not support a rapid pullout of troops
> from Iraq, but he criticized Drake, saying she has failed to ask tough
> questions about the conduct of the war. “Can you tell me that the
> Congress has scrutinized the Department of Defense as much as is
> necessary?” he asked.
>
> Kellam has also seized on the fate of the huge Oceana Naval Air
> Station, targeted for possible closure by a congressional commission.
> He accused Drake and other Virginia Republicans of failing to do
> enough to keep the station’s jets in the area.
>
> Drake responded angrily, saying that Virginia’s Democrats and
> Republicans have worked together to protect the base. She also said
> she has worked hard on Iraq, visiting troops twice since taking
> office, and called Kellam’s criticisms “absolutely false, untrue [and]
> deliberately misleading.”
>
> Drake’s goal will be to rebut Kellam’s criticisms and prove to
> constituents that she has delivered for them. Kellam’s hope is that
> factors beyond Drake’s control will overwhelm the customary political
> leanings of the district.
>
> Balz reported from Washington. Special correspondent Chris Cillizza in
> Washington contributed to this report.
>