(In New Jersey) GOP retirements could prove crucial
Article link
GOP retirements could prove crucial
With two of the state’s Republican U.S. representatives saying they won’t run again, Democrats are taking aim.
By Cynthia Burton
Inquirer Staff Writer
When two New Jersey congressmen announced their retirement in a recent 10-day span, the Republican Party lost a pair of incumbents with a combined $2 million head start on campaign fund-raising.
Those retirements, which would be a setback anywhere, could be especially painful for the GOP in New Jersey, where Democrats hold the political power and are able to raise the most money. And the winners of congressional races are usually those who spend the most money.
In 2006, the last time the U.S. House of Representatives was up for election, only 6 percent of the winners beat better-financed opponents, according to an analysis of federal campaign-spending reports by OpenSecrets.Org, a nonpartisan think tank. In New Jersey, every congressional candidate with the bigger war chest won.
The first surprise retirement came from Burlington County’s U.S. Rep. James Saxton, who on Nov. 9 said he would not seek reelection, citing health reasons. He had $1.3 million in ready cash for a forthcoming campaign.
The second came Monday, from U.S. Rep. Mike Ferguson of central New Jersey, who at 37 said he wanted to spend more time with his family. He became the 21st congressman to announce his retirement this year, with most of them - 17 - Republicans. Ferguson had $760,000 in available campaign funds.
Republican political consultant Larry Weitzner acknowledged the loss of the funds “is certainly a factor.”
“You have two incumbents with sizable war chests, and now you have new people starting all over,” he said.
But, he said, money “will not be the decisive factor” if Republicans field the right candidates. Democrats took the retirements as good news.
“A Democratic candidate can be certain she’s not walking into that race $1 million behind,” said Pat Politano, a longtime Democratic consultant who worked for candidate Linda Stender against Ferguson in 2006. “It’s an even playing field now. If anything, I would view it as a financial advantage for Democrats.”
With or without the retirements, analysts say New Jersey Republicans in split districts are on shaky ground in the 2008 presidential election year. New Jersey is enough of a blue state that Democrats had already targeted Saxton and Ferguson.
A third GOP congressional seat also may be in play. Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew, the Cape May County resident who became the first Democrat in memory to be elected state senator from the rigidly Republican county, could run against seven-term Republican U.S. Rep. Frank LoBiondo. In a recent interview, Van Drew said he wouldn’t think about a congressional run until after the holidays.
Of New Jersey’s 13 members of Congress, seven are Democrats and six are Republicans. The state’s governor and two U.S. senators, as well as most members of both houses of the state Legislature, are Democrats. In the recent round of State House races, Democrats picked up a seat in the state Senate, bringing their advantage to 23 to 17; Democrats lost two seats in the Assembly, but maintained a commanding 48-32 majority.
Because Democrats hold power in New Jersey, they can raise more money than Republicans. And money will be a major factor in both races, especially in Saxton’s district, which is in two expensive television markets. The district runs from the Delaware River through Burlington and Ocean Counties to the Atlantic Ocean. Candidates will have to spend about $1.2 million on television advertising in the New York market each week in the final stage of the race, and at the same time write a check for $300,000 per week in the Philadelphia market. Most of Ferguson’s old central Jersey district is in the New York market.
“I can’t think of a district across the country that is more expensive” than the Saxton seat, said Carrie James, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “There are media markets that are more expensive, but it’s only one media market.”
Ken Spain of the Republican committee declined to comment about campaign finances. Both races are toss-ups, said David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political analysis service. He put the Ferguson seat on his toss-up list after Ferguson said he would retire.
“The key question in both races right now is: Since the Democratic field looks set, who do the Republicans nominate?” said Wasserman.
For the Saxton seat, State Sen. John Adler (D., Camden) already has considerable support and about $200,000 in his campaign account. For the Ferguson seat, Linda Stender, a Democratic assemblywoman from Union County, had been looking for a rematch with Ferguson, who beat her by 1 percent in the 2006 race after outspending her by a 3-2 ratio. She has about $200,000 to face a soon-to-be-named Republican.
Names surfacing to take Ferguson’s place on the ballot include State Sen. Leonard Lance of Hunterdon County, who lost his minority-leader seat to State Sen. Thomas H. Kean Jr. last week.
For Saxton’s seat, Republicans are mulling over a list that includes freeholders from Ocean and Burlington Counties and State Sen. Diane Allen (R., Burlington), who announced yesterday that top GOP fund-raisers Candice Straight and Lew Eisenberg are on her advisory committee. Also in the running are David Norcross, a national GOP committeeman, and Virginia Haines, a former state lottery director.
——————————————————————————–
Contact staff writer Cynthia Burton at 856-779-3858 or [email protected].