The Changing Face of America
The Changing Face of America
Republicans should fear, but Democrats can’t cheer
© Bryan Zepp Jamieson
6/23/07
http://www.zeppscommentaries.com/Politics/pew.htm
Pew came out with their big report this week, the one that measure
political, social and religious trends in America. Religion didn’t show
any major changes, and Americans are becoming more liberal on social
issues such as gay marriage and mixed race dating, but in politics,
there has been a major sea change.
One of the strangest poll markers in the survey can be found in the
question, “Are you satisfied with the way thing are going in the country
today?” It’s startling to see that in the immediate aftermath of 9/11,
17% more Republicans expressed satisfaction with how things were going
in America than they did a couple of weeks before. It’s as if they
looked at the smoking ruins of the Trade Center and the two-thousand
point drop in the Dow, rubbed their hands, and murmured, “Ex-cellent.
Everything is going according to plan.”
Now, granted, it’s pretty unlikely that any Republican, with the
exception of Dick Cheney, did that. And in fairness, similar jumps (10%
and 4%, respectively) were seen among Democrats and Independents. I
think that what that particular poll result shows is that when people
engage in frantic flag waving, the critical functions of the brain shut
down. Pep-rally patriotism doesn’t leave much room for awareness, and in
truth, I’m not sure it’s any sort of improvement over the “evil cackle”
Dick Cheney approach. Both are a form of social poison.
The inability to look around with unclouded eyes still afflicts
Republicans. Today, most are still waggling flags and shouting “America!
Boo-yah!” and 58% think things in America are just hunky dory. That
compares with 28% of independents and 14% of Democrats. And the
discontinuity between Independents and Democrats stems in part from the
fact that since 1994 Republicans have been encouraged to self-identify
to pollsters as Independents in hopes of creating the impression that
their attitudes extended beyond the party. To their credit, not many try
this juvenile stunt, but it’s enough to tweak the results when
Republicans stand against the rest of America on something, as happens
more and more these days.
Another startling set of stats occurs early in the report (page 15) in
which the ideological examination of states participating in primaries
(liberal, moderate, conservative, don’t know) is listed. In most states,
moderates are the biggest faction, usually in the 40s. And it’s no
surprise that more voters self-identify as liberals in places like
California or the Northeast. What is really startling is the change in
states that were previously seen as being of the deepest red. Colorado,
for instance, leans liberal over conservative by a 39-13 margin; Utah,
38-22; Arizona 31-20 and Kansas – yes, Kansas – by 29 to 19. In only
eleven states, mostly deep south, do self-identified conservatives
outnumber self-identified liberals.
That’s an amazing change over just a six year period.
Another startling change is in how Americans view the country’s military
might. From World War II on, Americans, by a solid majority, believed
that the best way to ensure peace was through military might. The
question invariably produced a result 15 to 25 points in favor of the
assertion. Then came Iraq.
It’s no surprise that Americans believe attacking and occupying Iraq was
a serious mistake, and that it has made the world a more dangerous
place. Poll after poll has shown that. What IS surprising is that so
many Americans have realized what their leaders have not: that a massive
military is trumped by a determined underground resistance, or what the
boys in the Pentagon like to call “asymmetrical warfare.” Pew’s poll
shows that over all, Americans only barely cling to the fancy that a
strong military means peace, by 49-47. When you deduct the Republicans,
it’s obvious that a majority of Americans no longer believe this to be
true.
Another surprise was attitudes toward Affirmative Action. In 1995, only
57% of Americans approved of Affirmative Action. Now 70% do, including a
majority (56%) of Republicans. The right has spent hundreds of thousands
of man-hours and millions of dollars on this, only to sharply lose
ground. One reason for this is that voters never bought the claim by the
far right that Affirmative Action was “preferential treatment” and when
asked if minorities -should- receive preferential treatment, 62% said no.
People who complain about “big government Democrats” will be startled by
the results to the polling statement, “When government does something,
it is usually inefficient and wasteful.” It produced 61% agreement from
Republicans, and 64% agreement from Democrats. Similarly, 58% of
Democrats believe government regulation of business does more harm than
good (a shift upward over just the past six years) while 57% of
Republicans feel the same way, a shift downward. (they are warming to
the idea as the corruption scandals grow). In both instances, members of
each party are reacting to the corrupt administration the GOP has
inflicted on the country over the past six years.
Republicans remain more willing to sacrifice constitutional rights,
especially everyone else’s. A depressing 40% of Americans feel that a
little security is more important than freedom, but 51% of Republicans
feel that way, provided, of course that the freedoms to make money or
inflict Jesus on others remain. As always, they want to sacrifice YOUR
freedoms, not theirs. For your own good, of course.
Environment is still an overwhelmingly popular issue, with 83% saying
they support stricter laws and regulations to protect the environment,
and 69% agreeing that “we should put more emphasis on fuel conservation
than on developing new oil supplies.” Oddly, while 90% plus of Democrats
and Independents support a stronger environmental approach, the number
of Republicans who support it has dropped from 78% in 1995 to 65% now,
which shows the increasing radicalism and alienation of the GOP.
And that brings us to the single most important item in the survey:
party affiliation. As recently as 2002, the parties were in a dead heat,
with 43% of voters asserting an affiliation with one or the other. Now,
50% of voters consider themselves Democratic, and only 35% Republican.
It’s obvious what’s happening. The GOP right wing, which still controls
the party, has been driving out moderates by the millions. And rather
than simply become independents, they are going all the way and crossing
party lines. That’s why the sudden drop among GOPhers in support for the
environment; the moderates leave, and the hardliners have a stronger
voice within the party ranks.
This in turn will drive out more moderates. Making the party even more
extreme right. Eventually, it could be 100% against the environment, and
make up 10% of the voting public. They won’t win many elections, but by
gawd, they’ll have a united front!
Americans are disaffected and disillusioned, and it’s mostly because of
GOP mismanagement. But this doesn’t translate into a big boost for
Democrats, who have yet to show they can reverse the downward trends of
Iraq, the separation of rich and poor, and the general tone of debate in
the country. Until they do, their advantage is both tenuous and ephemeral.
But for the GOP, the situation is much grimmer. They stand to become the
permanent minority party for the next generation. And they are on a
course to become a small group of nasty, extremist whack jobs, totally
irrelevant to mainstream America.
Much the way the ones in Congress and the White House already are.