Atrios Blog on Iraq and poll numbers - a must read!
From: Scott Adams
I hope Democrats read these poll numbers. -Atrios
All By Themselves
I hope Democrats read these poll numbers.
-Atrios 10:20 AM
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The Horse’s Mouth
A blog about the reporting of politics — and the politics of reporting. By Greg Sargent
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WHEN WILL THE PUNDITS CATCH UP WITH THE PUBLIC ON IRAQ? Check out some of the numbers in the guts of today’s New York Times poll that didn’t make it into the paper’s article about it. They’re pretty eye-opening:
Do you think the United States should or shouldn’t set a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq? Should: 56 Should not: 40
Do you think it is worth the loss of life and other costs for the United States to remain in Iraq until there’s a stable democracy there, or is it not worth the loss of life and other costs, or are you unsure?
Worth it: 25
Not worth it: 42
Unsure: 32
How do you think the war with Iraq is affecting the United States’ image in the world? Is the war making the U.S. image in the world better, making it worse, or is the war having no effect on the U.S. image in the world?
Better: 10
Worse: 72
No effect: 12
Do you think the U.S. presence in Iraq is leading to greater stability in the Middle East, less stability, or won’t it have any effect on the stability of the Middle East?
Greater: 25
Less: 41
No effect: 25
If the U.S. stays in Iraq for several more years, do you think that will eventuallly make the United States more safe from terrorism, less safe, or won’t it make any difference?
More safe: 27
Less safe: 21
No effect: 50
Makes you wonder: When will many of our pundits and commentators catch up with the rest of the American public? And when will they start seriously acknowledging the extent to which the Democrats are more in step than the GOP with American public opinion?
–Greg Sargent
UPDATE: I forgot to include another key number from the poll:
Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is more likely to make the right decisions about the war in Iraq? Republican: 36 Democrat: 42
So there you have it.
UPDATE II: A few weeks ago, Jamison Foser aptly explained the broader reasons for (and consequences of) the pundits’ constant presumption of GOP advantage. It’s worth another read.
Posted by Greg Sargent on July 27, 2006 08:04 AM | Permalink
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Comments
But what do real Americans think? You know, Americans from the Heartland with real American values.
Posted by: bink | July 27, 2006 10:30 AM
An oldie but goodie:
Why Do Americans hate America?
-
Posted by: Volvo Liberal | July 27, 2006 10:34 AM
The reason the “Pundits” don’t mention these polls is because those geniuses are no better at predicting future events than a covey? of monkeys throwing darts. Philip Tetlocks book, “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It, How Can We Know” sheds some interesting light on the topic. In a twenty year study of “Experts” he catalogued over 82,000 forecasts by political experts. Without going into detail, he discovered that experts ability to predict outcomes was no better than if a hobo off the street was asked to predict the answer to the question or than a bunch of monkeys making random choices.I have long suspected the same thing but this book has pretty much nailed these “experts” and their mostly bogus advice.
Posted by: R.T.Tihista | July 27, 2006 10:47 AM
I think it’s fine to use polling like this to show how the media or politicians are out of touch with popular opinion. I’m not sure we it’s prudent to use as a way of determining whose opinion is more valid, considering that a Harris poll released two days ago showed that 50 percent of respondents believed Saddam had WMD and 60+ percent believed he had a significant relationship with AL Qaeda.
Posted by: Vee gee | July 27, 2006 10:50 AM
Bink
Still people like you believe you are right and all other americans are wrong. If your an american your an american since when where you come from makes you a “real ” american”? I guess we could say those that pay all the MONEY in taxes are the real americans. In case you don’t know or don’t have the facts the Blue states pay the greatest amount of money to the Federal government. The “real ” americans know how to make money the Heartland knows how to hate!!!! What happens out there that you hate and love war??????The gates of hell have been opened up by you and your kind, sad your so uneducated you can’t read and understand.
Posted by: rmf | July 27, 2006 10:57 AM
Another reason to ignore the pundits, which sane people do(except media critics who make a living out of being driven nuts)
Posted by: Carol | July 27, 2006 10:57 AM
Psst, I think bink was making a joke/commentary on the pundit class.
Posted by: shingles | July 27, 2006 11:12 AM
Remember, the pundits are part of the establishment that got us into Iraq in the first place. The same, I am sorry to say, is true of most Democrats. Any serious addressing of the Iraq issue would require a wholesale overhaul of the establshment which would, among other things, mandate the widespread unemployment of most of the media figures you have now heard of. That is not likely to happen and even less likely to attract pundit support.
Posted by: Thinker | July 27, 2006 11:21 AM
Pundits are followers, not leaders. They won’t really change their tune until the Democrats win, and probably even then they need to win in something better than a close election.
Posted by: matt | July 27, 2006 11:21 AM
Note that many of the ‘worth is’ ‘more safe’ ‘greater stability’ numbers are basically at or below the the level of support that the president and the GOP receives.
It’s unlikely that they will drop much lower than that, since it would take arch-partisan right wingers abandoning president & party. And that ain’t going to happen. They’re invested (literally & figuratively) too much in both.
Posted by: lutton | July 27, 2006 12:03 PM
Regarding Vee Gee’s comment on the Harris poll showing American ignorance:
Combining the Harris and NYT polls actually makes things look better for Democrats. The NYT poll shows majorities feeling bad about the purposes and prospects of the Iraq War even though Americans believe a lot of the bullshit peddled before the war started, which the Harris poll demonstrates.
Posted by: SeymoursFatLady | July 27, 2006 12:06 PM
>Psst, I think bink was making a joke/commentary on the pundit class.
The same pundit class that would get the vapors if they got out of cab distance from a 5 star French - er, Freedom - resteraunt.
Posted by: doesn’t matter | July 27, 2006 12:08 PM
Yes, I can spell reste…reistir… diner, I just choose not to in order to throw off the trolls.
Or something.
Posted by: doesn’t matter | July 27, 2006 12:09 PM
I disagree with matt. There are known cases of pundits taking money to support certain positions. I think a more widespread problem is pundits supporting a position that is editorially endorsed by their particular media outlet or one they are emotionally attached to. The right-wing noise machine has driven natural selection of a right-leaning pundit population. I do not know whether they are sincere in their beliefs or hoping their jabbering will actually drive public opinion. I do agree they are not part of the reality-based community that average americans are forced by pragmatic concerns to inhabit.
Posted by: Rash Nussell | July 27, 2006 12:09 PM
I don’t care that much about when or whether pundits pull their heads out and realize where the country is on these questions.
I just wish the Democratic leadership would pull their heads out and understand how much support they WOULD have if they would simply quit acting like they represent minority views. They don’t. The Democratic planks on these and other issues are mainstream.
The GOP beats you up for having photos of soldiers’ coffins in an ad? Good! Show the ad more! Show the graphic results of failed GOP policy.
The GOP beats you up because you think Bolton is an abomination? Good! Show clips of The Moustache in action. Over and over and over! Show the graphic results of failed GOP policy.
GOP says the economy is great? Good! Show the real numbers. Show how much each and every man, woman, and child owes. Show how real income has dropped. Show the ad everyday. Show the graphic results of failed GOP policy.
GOP does blah blah blah? Then run an ad showing yadda yadda yadds. Every day, show the graphic results of failed GOP policy. For God’s sakes, when they whine about it, don’t pull the ads, don’t reign in your speech.
LEAD WITH YOUR STRENGTH.
Posted by: Jeff Boatright | July 27, 2006 12:40 PM
The reasons dem’s and dem advisors aren’t into the anti-Iraq thing is because it’s a scam they want in on. Why remove such a lucrative cash cow when they’re right on the verge of making all that money for themselves?
MYOB’
.
Posted by: MYOB | July 27, 2006 01:50 PM
Perhaps the pundits, just as you do, Greg, recognize that these polls are horseshit and represent yet another form of push polling?
Run negative story after negative story for weeks and weeks and then poll the public’s attitudes. Then present those poll results in feigned surprise that your coverage could have anything to do with influencing those negative attitudes.
You know better, Greg, just as these pundits who are not catching up (supposedly) do.
Posted by: Specialist | July 27, 2006 03:17 PM
http://www.prospect.org/horsesmouth/2006/07/post_251.html#004907