Bush’s NY Poll Numbers Plummet

September 23, 2003, 1:20 PM EDT

President Bush's approval rating has suffered a double-digit drop among New York voters in five months and about one-quarter of Republicans now say they will vote against him, a statewide poll reported Tuesday.

The downturn for Bush comes in the wake of boasting by Republican Gov. George Pataki and other top New York GOP officials that the president will carry the Empire State next year. No Republican president has managed that in heavily Democratic New York since Ronald Reagan did it in 1980 and 1984.

"Obviously, the election is a long way away, but these numbers suggest that's a tall order at this point," said Lee Miringoff, head of Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion.

"He will carry New York state," vowed state GOP Chairman Alexander Treadwell when asked about the new poll. The independent Marist poll came out as Bush arrived in New York City to address the United Nations on the war on terrorism and the Iraq war, and as several national polls also showed his voter support slipping.

Bush's approval rating was 44 percent in the New York poll, down from 58 percent in April and a high of 79 percent in December 2001, just three months after the terrorist attacks brought down the World Trade Center towers and sent Bush's approval ratings soaring in New York.

But in the latest Marist poll, 48 percent of New York voters surveyed, including 23 percent of Republicans, said they definitely planned to vote against Bush in the 2004 election.

"There is some erosion at his base, not just an overall alienation among Democrats," Miringoff said.

Sixty-eight percent of Democrats and 44 percent of independent voters said they definitely planned to vote against the Republican president. One in three voters said they would definitely vote for Bush.

While 56 percent of New York voters said they approved of Bush's handling of the war on terrorism, 52 percent said they disapproved of his handling of the situation in Iraq and 61 percent said he wasn't doing a good job with the economy.

That appeared to be more bad news for Bush given that 54 percent of New York voters said the economy and jobs was the top issue for them while just 41 percent said that about the war on terrorism.

Hoping to capitalize on Bush's apparent strength in New York, Republicans in January had announced that next year's Republican National Convention would be held in New York City. The hope was that, at the least, Democratic resources would be tied down in New York which was easily won by Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election.

"The poll suggests ... that although the convention may be in New York in 2004, that doesn't mean New York is necessarily going to be in play for Bush," pollster Miringoff said.

In New York state, there are about 5 million Democrats and 3 million Republicans.

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[It should be noted that his U N speech did nothing to improve world relations. It is so nice to have a world community reject this transparent puppet of the right-wing. And to have Mr. Chriac say, "why should we give $20 billion to someone who was not elected?"]