ASHINGTON, Sept. 12 — With President Bush on the defensive over his handling of postwar Iraq, Democrats on Capitol Hill have been scoring a few victories in the Republican-controlled Congress, gaining a measure of political momentum that they hope will grow more pronounced as the 2004 elections draw nearer.

This week, Senate Democrats won votes on such pocketbook issues as overtime pay and student aid, as well as financing for special education. Last week, their long-running filibuster forced an appeals court nominee, Miguel Estrada, to withdraw. Next week, they are expected to prevail in a Senate vote to repeal new rules, backed by the White House, that would enable large media conglomerates to expand.

Political analysts and Democrats say it is no coincidence that the recent gains on overtime and student aid came in the same week that President Bush announced he was requesting $87 billion for postwar Iraq, an announcement followed by a drop in Mr. Bush's approval rating. Some say the numbers have emboldened Democrats and made Republicans, especially those up for re-election, more likely to break ranks with their party and the president.

"The president is losing some of his popularity," said Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic whip. Of Republicans, Mr. Reid said: "They no longer feel that he can be a dictator. They no longer feel that he is King George. He is President George now."

Republicans, of course, are hardly relinquishing control on Capitol Hill. This week, they shut Democrats out of talks designed to reach an agreement between the House and Senate on a new energy bill. Senators Bill Frist of Tennessee, the Republican leader, and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican whip, played down the Democrats' recent gains.

"We like to let them win one occasionally to keep their morale up," Senator McConnell said, adding that Republican unity was not cracking.

"My response," he said, "is: Prove it. There's no evidence."

Dr. Frist called the Democrats' gains "isolated victories."

But some scholars and political strategists, both Democrat and Republican, say Democrats have succeeded in taking advantage of the limited muscle they have. News from Iraq, combined with the increasing federal deficit, high unemployment and recent polls on Mr. Bush "have caused Republicans to get a little wobbly," one Republican strategist said.

He added, "It feels like the wheels are starting to fall off a little."

The polls have been running in the Democrats' favor. A Gallup poll, conducted after Mr. Bush's speech on Iraq and released on Thursday, found his approval rating at 52 percent, down from 59 percent at the end of August.

And a recent poll by the Senate Republican Conference, released this week, found voters preferred Democratic Senate candidates to Republicans by 46 percent to 40 percent. The margin of sampling error in both polls was plus or minus three percentage points.

[Note: we should also consider the ruling by the Ninth Circut Court on delaying the recall election. These are signs(in my opnion) that when you fight hard enough, things work in your favor, or the circumstances change dramatically].

But it is pretty important this time out that the party select a nominee who is NOT so "centrist" he looks like a Republican in a donkey suit. Dems need a clear contrast to Bush in the presidential race, not another gray suit.

The reason that is important is, even though Bush is attracting higher and higher negatives on the specific issues, masochistic average Americans still give him a 60 percent overall aproval rating, and pick him to beat an unnamed Dem by 52-44 percent.

Like when Clinton ran against Bush I, we need a candidate who has contrast so people have a real choice. I hope to heck we do get one.